The latest statistics from Smith Travel Research reveal the extent to which the September 11 terrorist attacks and subsequent events have impacted the hotel industry through the end of this year and, potentially, through year-end 2002.

According to STR President Mark Lomanno, 2001 occupancy rates had been projected at 63.7 percent before September 11 — that figure has been revised downward to 60.7 percent as a result of the attacks. Similarly, STR has set average daily rate projections at $86.32 through the end of this year — a scant increase over last year's $85.82. “It would have been a significantly bigger increase, but that's all changed now since September 11 and recent events,” Lomanno says.

Revenue per available room (revPAR), at $54.71 by the end of last year, is projected to be $52.40 by year-end 2001; pre-September 11, STR was forecasting a year-end figure of $54.50.

Following are STR's projected statistics through year-end 2002: occupancy, 60.3 percent; ADR, $86.50; revPAR, $52.16.

“The best-case scenario is that things will get better by February or March, but we really don't expect that to happen,” Lomanno says. “We're projecting they really won't pick up until midsummer.”