Analysis from PricewaterhouseCoopers confirms that domestic travel and lodging will take a hit from the war and heightened security warnings. Based on a scenario briefing released earlier this month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, PwC forecasts that, if the war lasts four to six weeks, ends in a victory for the U.S., and doesn’t disrupt the flow of oil supplies, revenue per available room will go down for the first two quarters of 2003 and return to the baseline growth pattern later in the year.

In addition to leisure travel coming back as the peak summer travel season debuts under this scenario, PwC believes business travel will bounce back quickly because of an accelerated economy spurred on by the end of geopolitical uncertainty. In the meantime, though, PwC expects lodging demand to sink an additional 4.9 percent, or 126,000 occupied rooms per night, below the baseline. By the end of the year, PwC forecasts that lodging demand will increase by 7.7 percent.

That’s the best-case scenario. The CSIS also looked at intermediate and worst-case scenarios, under which PwC predicts a decrease in RevPAR of 0.1 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, for this year.