Does a positive mammogram mean a woman has breast cancer? Does a positive HIV test mean someone is infected with the virus? As ordinary people confront the laws of probability, the odds of misinterpretation and false alarms rise. Two German psychologists have found a better way to teach basic statistical concepts, based on the way people naturally weigh the odds. This approach can help patients, and the doctors who advise them, more accurately assess the meaning of test results. Peter ...

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