Business-travel trends are meeting trends, and the 16th annual edition of the GBTA Business Travel Index Outlook spells it out: When researchers asked 4,100 business travelers from 28 global markets the purpose of their most recent business trip, seminars and training was the most common answer, followed by conventions and conferences.
So how is business travel faring today and what’s expected in the years ahead? Those are among the questions tackled by Rockport Analytics for the Global Business Travel Association’s 2024 BTI Outlook report unveiled July 22 at the group’s Annual Convention in Atlanta. In addition to surveying business travelers, Rockport analyzed data provided by governments, travel-management companies, and suppliers such as airlines and hotels.
Looking at global spending on business travel, the report has some good news and some bad news. On the positive side, business travel spending grew to $1.34 trillion in 2023, a 30-percent increase over 2022. That total is expected to rise more than 10 percent to $1.48 trillion in 2024, which will be an all-time high and the first time that annual global spending surpassed pre-pandemic levels. However, when researchers account for inflation, the growth isn’t as remarkable.
“While recovery has been impressive,” the report reads, “it is important to note that when adjusted for inflation, spending levels are anticipated to lag pre-pandemic highs over the coming years, implying that business-travel volumes will remain below pre-pandemic levels as well.”
While researchers see falling inflation, stabilizing labor markets, and strong consumer spending as signs of a continuation of what they characterize as a “surprisingly resilient” global economy thus far in 2024, they also cite risks ahead. These include the 70 national elections this year as well as geopolitical tensions.
Projection Disparities
Of course, the outlook for business-travel spending is uneven from industry to industry. Between 2023 and 2028, the financial and insurance sector is expected to see the largest increase in business travel spending (72 percent) while forestry and fishing will see the smallest (32 percent).
Similarly, business-travel spending varies from region to region. One telling chart from the 2024 BTI Outlook (see below) looks at six global regions and their business-travel spending in in 2021, 2022, and 2023 compared to 2019. The Asia-Pacific region, for example, shows extraordinary business-travel recovery in 2021 compared to most of the rest of the world. However, less progress was made in 2022, and by the end of 2023, spending had not yet returned to 2019 levels.
The chart also shows that North America, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America all reached pre-pandemic levels of spending in 2023, with North America showing the strongest comeback, finishing last year at 104 percent of 2019 levels.
Interestingly, of those six global regions, three dominate business travel spending by a lot. Asia Pacific ($545.4 billion), North America ($359.3 billion), and Western Europe ($314.9 billion) accounted for $1.2 trillion of 2023’s $1.3 trillion in business-travel expenditures. The rest was spent by business travelers from Latin America ($49 billion), Emerging Europe ($39 billion), or the Middle East and Africa ($27.5 billion).
The BTI Outlook’s executive summary is available here, but the full report can only be accessed by GBTA members.
